The Ups and Downs of the NCAA Basketball Season: Surprises and Disappointments

Men’s College Basketball Season Overview

The current men’s college basketball season is shaping up to be a tale of triumphs and tribulations. As we approach the midpoint of the 2025-26 regular season, the competition is intensifying with teams vying for coveted spots in the NCAA Tournament, set to commence in two months. Familiar names like Arizona, Duke, Connecticut, and Michigan are once again claiming top positions, but this season has also unraveled some unexpected narratives on both ends of the spectrum—teams that have defied preseason predictions and some that have faltered significantly.

Standout Performances

Examining the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology alongside early season predictions sheds light on the standout performances and disappointing results experienced thus far in the league.

Notable Surprises in NCAA Basketball

  • Nebraska: The Cornhuskers have emerged as the season’s sensation, achieving an unprecedented 18-0 record, the finest start in their school’s history. With notable victories over Michigan State and Illinois, Nebraska stands at a stunning fifth in the Quad 1 category and holds a No. 6 ranking in the NET—a significant leap from their preseason assessments. A strong finish could see them secure a top-four NCAA seed, an opportunity to achieve their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory, making them the last Power conference team to do so.
  • Vanderbilt: Predicted to languish at the bottom of the Southeastern Conference, the Commodores have instead surprised everyone with a 16-0 start, tying their record for the best in school history. Despite a couple of recent losses, Vanderbilt’s strong performance positions them to make consecutive tournament appearances for the first time in nearly a decade, potentially earning their highest seeding since 1993.
  • Virginia: In a notably competitive ACC, Virginia’s resurgence has been marked by their success on the road, holding a record of 4-1 in away Quad 1 games against teams like Texas and Louisville. Under new leadership from Ryan Odom, the Cavaliers (currently 16-2, 5-1 in conference play) are aiming to return to the NCAA Tournament after a two-year absence.
  • Clemson: Coach Brad Brownell’s team quietly mounted a nine-game winning streak after a shaky start, placing them as frontrunners within the ACC. Sitting at 16-3 overall, the Tigers aim for their first conference championship since 1990 and look strong for yet another chance at March Madness, with three straight tournaments not accomplished since 2011.
  • Villanova: After experiencing inconsistency in their previous season, Villanova is now regaining the momentum that had previously led them to national prominence. Despite a couple of early losses to ranked teams, they’ve maintained a solid 14-4 record and are on track to secure a spot in the NCAA field for the first time since 2022.
  • Saint Louis: Often overlooked, Saint Louis has emerged with a stellar 17-1 record, boasting one of the top NET rankings in the country at No. 22, making a compelling case for at-large consideration from outside the Power conferences.
  • Miami (Ohio): The RedHawks are quietly booming with a 19-0 record, achieving their best start to date. While they haven’t faced any heavyweights yet, their unblemished record positions them as a strong contender for a single-digit seed if they maintain this trajectory.

Major Disappointments of the Season

  • UCLA: Hopes were high for the Bruins with the addition of Donovan Dent, but they now hold a 12-6 record with only one victory in Quad 1 matchups, raising concerns about their postseason viability. Coach Mick Cronin has acknowledged the team’s defensive struggles, which have significantly impacted their prospects.
  • Kentucky: Mark Pope’s second year has been tumultuous, with inconsistent play leading to a forgettable 5-4 start. Although they’ve improved slightly, sitting at 12-6 with a 3-5 mark in tough Quad 1 matchups, any further slip could see them miss the NCAA Tournament.
  • St. John’s: Initially, there was optimism surrounding Rick Pitino’s appointment, but the Red Storm have stumbled early on with a mixed record and no quality victories, needing to recover quickly to maintain tournament hopes.
  • Oregon: The Ducks faced a rocky year after a promising 4-0 start, tumbling to a dismal 4-10 record since. With major losses against expected defeats, their absence from NCAA conversation is stark as they look for a turnaround.
  • Creighton: The Bluejays have also struggled, recently dropping to an 11-8 record, failing to build on expectations. With a troubled Quad 1 performance and a NET ranking of 55, they are perilously close to the bubble.
  • Missouri: After an initial unbeaten run, they found themselves 5-5 in the subsequent stretch, facing tougher opponents. With a lackluster NET rank of 68, optimistic projections have waned quickly.
  • Marquette: Perhaps the most disheartening case, they have suffered a string of losses, sitting at 6-13 with no wins in their Quad 1 and 2 games, placing them far from tournament contention and putting Coach Shaka Smart’s job security into doubt.
  • Memphis: Following a promising season prior, this year has seen the Tigers struggle heavily with a 4-7 start and a dire NET ranking of 108, making qualification for the NCAA reliant on winning the conference title.

Conclusion

With the season still unfolding, both dazzling success stories and disappointing downturns continue to shape the landscape of college basketball as teams fight for their postseason positioning. This presents a captivating narrative for fans and analysts alike as January progresses toward the tournament season.