Vladislav Gavrikov’s Rising Value
Vladislav Gavrikov, the towering 29-year-old defenseman, made an unexpected and significant leap in performance during the 2024-25 season. With his notable improvement, Gavrikov’s upcoming contract negotiations this summer come at a crucial moment that may impact his value significantly. Over the years, players often elevate their game to secure a lucrative deal, and Gavrikov exemplified this trend brilliantly last season.
Assessment of Gavrikov’s Worth
As teams assess his worth, they face a challenging decision: should they reward him for his impressive performance as a top-tier defenseman, or should they be wary of his previous status as a solid yet not elite player? Insights from colleague James Mirtle suggest that a number of teams are leaning towards valuing Gavrikov at the level he demonstrated in his contract year, despite potential risks associated with this assessment.
Mirtle proposed that Gavrikov could command a salary of around $8.5 million on a max-term contract.
This figure aligns closely with his impressive projected Net Rating of plus-7.1 achieved post-season, although expectations dictate that such a rating would regress to plus-2.7 by the end of a seven-year contract. Effectively, this means Gavrikov’s salary might start off at the level appropriate for a lower-end top-pair defenseman and taper off to that of a lower-end second-pair defender as time progresses.
Concerns Over Sustainability
The primary concern lies in the uncertainty surrounding Gavrikov’s current skill level, raising questions about whether he can maintain this standard in his 30s. The allure of a substantial payday can significantly motivate athletes, yet not every player reproduces their contract-year performance. Historical data underscores this trend from the past five seasons illustrates that many skaters, expected to decline due to age, instead outperform their projections in the final year before free agency. However, after signing contracts, many regress sharply, leading to the possibility that Gavrikov’s recent success could be an outlier.
The data indicates a worrying post-contract decline of 1.59 goals, surpassing expected drops, suggesting that some players struggle significantly once their financial future is secured. Gavrikov’s situation is reflective of a similar trajectory noted in other players, like former L.A. King Matt Roy, who, despite appearing elite during his contract year, failed to maintain that standard, highlighting the inherent risks of betting on such performances.
Long-term Viability
While Gavrikov’s exceptional achievements last season for the Kings warrant acknowledgment, they also invite a healthy skepticism regarding his long-term viability. Notably, the model assessing Gavrikov’s trajectory suggests a steep drop-off immediately in the following season but anticipates he could play at an above-average level after that, potentially remaining a valuable top-four defender.
The average anticipated salary suggests around $6.5 million over the next seven years, a figure that remains lower than some projections but still reflects a promising future compared to others in his position. However, Gavrikov must contend with a significant downside risk as he heads into his 30s. Players like Marc Methot and Marc-Edouard Vlasic were once considered top defenders only to experience sudden performance declines. As a rugged defender, committing to Gavrikov comes with the knowledge that risks abound, particularly concerning contract length.
His journey in the league has been intriguing, and he has indeed established himself as a vital asset for the Kings—a possibility that any team considering a multi-million dollar contract must weigh carefully. The question persists: Will his remarkable rise be a lasting trend or merely a fleeting moment driven by the promise of financial gain? As teams prepare to make their moves in the free agent market, they must tread cautiously, assessing whether Gavrikov’s peak is a sign of sustained excellence or a mirage created by the pressures of contract negotiations.
Data sourced from Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics sheds light on this ongoing dynamic in the league.
