Indiana Pacers: A Historic Milestone
As the Indiana Pacers prepare to face off in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET (broadcast on ABC), the franchise marks a significant milestone, hosting a Finals game in Indianapolis for the first time in 25 years. This achievement, however, comes as a delightful surprise given the team’s trajectory this season—a journey that many did not anticipate.
Unexpected Playoff Journey
Entering the playoffs as the No. 4 seed, Indiana was considered a long shot, especially in light of their previous season where they reached the Eastern Conference finals. With only a plus-5,000 (50-1) chance to clinch the championship at the season’s start, their position was among the most unexpected in the past 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Miami Heat and the 2002 New Jersey Nets.
For context, the Pacers had a formidable challenge ahead of them—overcoming the heavily favored Cleveland Cavaliers, who boasted a remarkable 64-win season. After dispatching the Cavaliers in Round 2, Indiana advanced to face the No. 3 seed, the New York Knicks, without the advantage of home-court play. Their successful navigation through these rounds is a testament to their resilience and skill, especially against formidable opponents that included a staggeringly high win total.
Against the Odds
Historically, unexpected finalists like the Pacers often struggle to replicate their playoff success. The skepticism surrounding Indiana’s ability to advance may have been fueled by the patterns seen in recent years, with many teams such as the 2018-19 Portland Trail Blazers and the 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks failing to maintain postseason momentum following similar surprise runs. The Blazers, for instance, achieved their conference finals berth primarily due to fortunate matchups but haven’t advanced past the first round since.
Given the youth and potential of the Pacers, led by 25-year-old star Tyrese Haliburton, there seemed to be a chance that this team could build on their success rather than falter. However, comparisons to the Hawks’ swift rise and subsequent decline remind us of the unpredictability of the playoffs.
Indiana’s path to the finals was aided by a fortunate bracket, particularly following the Celtics’ elimination in the conference playoffs last season, opening avenues for the Pacers.
Strategic Success and Skepticism
Yet, not all credit can be attributed solely to good fortune; Indiana’s performance was marked by strategic successes. Though their victory over Cleveland was a significant achievement, it may have been overshadowed by simultaneous notable upsets around the league. Attention was divided as the Pacers swiftly finished off Cleveland in five games, with a notable bounce-back performance in Game 4 after faltering in Game 3.
Despite their remarkable achievements, as reflected in their pre-series odds ranking among the unlikeliest champions since 2000, Indiana still faced skepticism at the beginning of the postseason. Their chances further dwindled when comparing their odds to other historic underdogs. Notably, only two teams have ever had longer odds entering the postseason while still reaching the Finals.
Beyond Statistics
In examining advanced stats, one would note that Indiana surpassed expectations, finishing the regular season with 49 wins despite a modest net rating of plus-2.1. Their performance was bolstered by the health of key players, which proved crucial as they adapted to early season injuries that saw them falter at the start of the campaign.
Looking beyond mere statistics, the Pacers embody the unpredictability of the NBA playoffs. Their journey defies easy classification, serving as a reminder that while narratives frequently emerge post-factum, the Pacers’ ascent is indeed worth celebrating for its sheer improbability, regardless of what the future might hold.
Should they succeed in capturing the championship, they would undoubtedly hold the distinction of being the least likely winners based on preseason projections, exemplifying a truly remarkable and unexpected playoff story.
