Milwaukee Bucks at a Crossroads
As the 2025-26 NBA season approaches, the Milwaukee Bucks find themselves at a critical crossroads, particularly concerning their star player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The question looming over the franchise is whether they should consider trading the two-time MVP.
Current Status of the Team
Currently, Antetokounmpo is widely regarded as one of the top three players in the league, trailing only MVP frontrunners Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić in advanced metrics like Estimated Plus-Minus. However, while the Thunder and Nuggets surround themselves with winning talent, the Bucks’ supporting cast remains weak, with projections indicating they may only secure 42.5 wins this upcoming season—a significant decline since 2016-17.
Trade Considerations
The Bucks, who drafted Antetokounmpo back in 2013, are understandably hesitant to part ways with him. Recent reports suggest that the New York Knicks attempted but failed to engage Milwaukee in meaningful discussions regarding a trade for the superstar. Nevertheless, experts posit that the time may have come for the Bucks to explore significant offers for Antetokounmpo—a move that could involve acquiring multiple first-round picks and immediate contributors.
Historically speaking, franchises that have off-loaded superstars when their value is at its peak have often reaped the rewards.
Successful Trade Examples
A case in point is the Thunder’s strategy during the summer of 2019 when they traded Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers. Thunder’s President, Sam Presti, recognized the chance to rebuild via the draft and secured an impressive haul that included a plethora of draft picks and the highly talented Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Just days later, he executed another significant trade, moving Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets, which ultimately set the Thunder on a path to success that culminated in their recent championship victory.
The Houston Rockets have also followed suit, previously trading their stars like James Harden and Russell Westbrook in favor of younger talent, leading them to assemble a promising core of players ready to compete in the coming seasons.
Risks of Holding Onto Stars
Conversely, franchises that hold onto aging stars too long—like the Phoenix Suns did with Kevin Durant—have faced severe repercussions. The Suns, who infamously exchanged a massive package for Durant, have now found themselves struggling to remain competitive while backtracking in their roster’s viability.
Their experience highlights the so-called “Gut Tax”, a penalty teams face when they commit large resources to acquire star talent, often limiting their ability to build a sustainable franchise around these players.
Future Considerations for the Bucks
Milwaukee’s recent trades—especially the acquisition of Damian Lillard, who has faced injury challenges—illustrate the precarious balance teams must strike when dealing with superstar players. With Antetokounmpo turning 31 and having a history of injuries, the Bucks may wish to act sooner rather than later to maximize their potential return.
The Bucks have options, yet trading Antetokounmpo would hinge on teams being able and willing to offer enticing packages—a quality first-round pick and a young star would be essential. Potential suitors include big players like the Golden State Warriors, who have draft capital to offer, or teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers, who might part with a player like Evan Mobley.
Conclusion
As Milwaukee evaluates its future, it must take heed of the lessons learned from franchises that have successfully navigated similar dilemmas. Embracing change, rather than resisting it, could offer the Bucks a much brighter path forward—something that GMs like Sam Presti have exemplified during their tenure.
