Understanding Scoring in the NBA
In the NBA, discussions about scoring prowess often default to points per game metrics. While it’s intuitive to think that the players leading in scoring are the best at it, this singular method fails to distinguish between efficient shooters and those merely benefitting from high usage rates. A reliance on raw scoring numbers can also lead to misleading comparisons across different eras of basketball. Simply put, just because a player takes a lot of shots doesn’t mean they are the most effective scorer available.
Introducing Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation (FGOE)
To uncover hidden talent and potential breakout athletes, analysts are turning to the StatHub by FTN, which utilizes the recently introduced Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation (FGOE) metric.
What exactly is FGOE? This statistic evaluates how a player’s field goal percentage stacks up against league averages, factoring in various elements like shot locations, the difficulty of the attempts, and the quality of defensive pressure during shooting scenarios. This means that FGOE focuses explicitly on shot-making skills, rather than just the success rate of shots taken. Unlike traditional field goal percentages, FGOE provides clarity by:
- Adjusting for the degree of difficulty for the shots taken,
- Excluding free throws from the calculations,
- Considering the defensive contest faced during the shot attempt.
Players exhibiting a high FGOE are outperforming their peers in terms of making challenging shots.
Notable Players with High FGOE
It is essential to note that not all high-volume scorers inflate their stats purely due to opportunity. Players like Nikola Jokić and Kevin Durant, celebrated for their scoring abilities, rank highly with FGOE as well, demonstrating they excel in both quantity and efficiency. However, there are also lesser-known players making significant impacts who deserve recognition.
Emerging Talents
Using NBA StatsHub, we can pinpoint players in less prominent roles who are achieving exceptional results:
DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) has seen a drop in his scoring this season to 19 points per game, down from an impressive 27.9 points during the 2021-2022 season. Despite a reduction in shot attempts (6.7 fewer per game), he still holds the highest FGOE among players averaging between 10-15 field goal attempts this year, with a notable +7.0% increase.
Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets), the fourth overall pick in the recent draft, is emerging as a promising talent. Averaging 19 points on just 13.6 attempts, he is one of only seven players scoring more than 19 points while shooting under 15 times per game, and all those others are seasoned veterans.
Miles McBride (New York Knicks) is winning over fans in New York with his reliable game, increasing his court time to 28.3 minutes per game. He is scoring 13.1 points and maintains an excellent three-point shooting percentage of 43.1%. His FGOE is the highest among Knicks players this season.
Bobby Portis (Milwaukee Bucks) may not have the same star power as Giannis Antetokounmpo, yet his shooting has been impressive, with a career-best 47.4% accuracy from beyond the arc, scoring 13.1 points per game on an average of 10.6 attempts. Potential playoff teams will certainly be eyeing Portis if Milwaukee looks to trade him before the deadline.
Ivica Zubac (Los Angeles Clippers) has also proven himself among the best centers in the league. Posting an average of 14.8 points with a remarkable shooting percentage of 60.5%, Zubac sits second in FGOE among centers who attempt at least 10 shots per game. He’s part of an exclusive group of players since 2000 who have managed to maintain such high scoring while shooting effectively.
Conclusion
As it stands, there are 20 players averaging at least 25 points per game this season; a stark contrast to just five players a decade ago at the same milestone. This underscores the necessity of looking beyond just scoring totals and utilizing comprehensive metrics like FGOE to truly understand who excels as shooters in today’s game.
