San Marino’s Journey in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualification
As the qualification process for the 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolds, one of the standout stories is that of San Marino, currently at the very bottom of FIFA’s men’s world rankings, occupying the 210th position out of 210 nations. This tiny state, with a population of barely 34,000, is the second largest microstate within Italy, following Vatican City, which notably does not field a FIFA-recognized team. San Marino’s chances of heading to the World Cup seem negligible, as they have suffered defeats in all seven of their qualifying matches, scoring just a lone goal while conceding 32.
Flicker of Hope
Despite the grim outlook, there remains a flicker of hope for San Marino to compete in the World Cup next summer, granted a highly improbable series of events unfold. To be in contention, San Marino would need to lose their final qualifying match in a significant fashion, along with other specific results in European qualifying. In total, 16 spots in the World Cup are reserved for UEFA (the European football confederation). Following a round-robin qualifying system, the top team from each of the 12 groups qualifies directly for the tournament. The second-placed teams enter a playoff to secure the remaining four spots, reserved for the highest-ranked teams that triumphed in Euro 2024 Nations League groups.
Unexpected Success in Nations League
In an unexpected twist, San Marino emerged victorious in their Nations League group, managing two wins against Liechtenstein and a draw with Gibraltar. However, they still rank last among the 14 group winners in the Nations League, which complicates their path forward. To win one of those coveted playoff spots, they require that at least 10 out of the 13 teams ahead of them in ranking either qualify directly or take second place in their respective groups.
Current Developments and Scenarios
Currently, with the qualification phase nearing its conclusion, there’s a dramatic development unfolding: eight teams that could potentially secure Nations League slots have already advanced to the World Cup. This means that San Marino’s hopes hinge on finding at least two additional second-place finishers in their groups. If Northern Ireland, for instance, manages to secure an essential win against Slovakia, they could position themselves favorably within the qualifiers. Similarly, if Romania triumphs over Bosnia and Herzegovina, they could also solidify second place in their qualifying group, which includes San Marino.
Potential Match Against Romania
Should such an outcome take place, an intriguing scenario could unfold when San Marino faces Romania on November 18. San Marino may find themselves incentivized to lose by a substantial margin to help Romania advance through the normal qualifying route, effectively relinquishing their prospect of attaining entry to the Nations League playoff. This convoluted situation draws attention to the infamous
“Disgrace of Gijón,”
a match in the 1982 World Cup that saw West Germany and Austria rather controversially collude, prompting FIFA to enforce rules for simultaneous match play to prevent similar situations.
Betting Perspectives
Of course, if such an absurd scenario transpired, the question would arise as to how sportsbooks might handle betting on the game. So far, interest in World Cup qualifying betting trails behind league football markets, according to BetMGM’s traders, with San Marino rarely being a team to garner serious attention. When they faced Cyprus, they were listed at +1300 odds to win, while against Austria, their odds reached a staggering 100-1, rendering them underdogs by a considerable margin. Bettors generally feel wary against such odds, but smaller bets do show interest in underdog narratives as noted by sportsbooks.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, for San Marino’s dreams to materialize, Northern Ireland and Romania both need to clinch their crucial matches. A parlay bet on both these outcomes yields odds of +1069, a significant return should the unlikely events unfold. The anticipation continues to build as sportsbooks consider how to handle the potential match between San Marino and Romania if they qualify for a scenario in which a loss could paradoxically represent a win for this deeply disadvantaged team, testing the limits of competitive integrity while highlighting the bizarre intricacies of football qualification.
