Rockets’ Recent Struggles
Following a narrow 125-124 defeat in overtime against the Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka confronted the team’s mindset, declaring,
“We didn’t deserve to win. Our approach wasn’t right. Playing down to the competition typically leads to regret.”
Despite boasting a respectable 17-9 record and sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference, the Rockets are grappling with concerning trends as they enter the new year. They have faltered in four of their last six matchups, with defeats at the hands of the Mavericks, Pelicans, and Kings — teams sitting in the 11th, 13th, and 15th spots in the conference standings. Since December 1, they hold a 4-5 record, raising alarm bells given that eight out of their nine losses have occurred in high-pressure situations defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of either regulation or overtime when the score is within a five-point margin.
Close Game Performance
As they have now crossed the 25-game threshold of the season, their record of 6-8 in close games prompts introspection. Although the Rockets currently rank third in both offensive and defensive ratings according to Cleaning the Glass, their performance in clutch scenarios has been markedly poor. They muster only 108.9 points per 100 possessions in these decisive segments, dropping them below the struggling Indiana Pacers, who sit at the bottom of the league. Additionally, their defensive rating in crunch time has slipped to 17th, with overall defensive intensity waning significantly since December 8.
Flaws in Late-Game Strategies
The flaws in Houston’s late-game strategies are increasingly evident. Observations show a disjointed offensive setup relying too much on individual play, with key statistics echoing this sentiment. The Rockets are near the lower third in the league for both assist ratio and assist percentage during crunch time. Their rankings in pace, turnover rate, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage also place them among the lowest in the league.
Potential Solutions
Could the remedy for these issues lie in achieving a fully healthy roster? Recent returns from injury, particularly that of versatile forward Tari Eason, who had missed 14 games, may bolster the team’s defensive stint while new additions such as Dorian Finney-Smith (recovering from ankle surgery) could provide much-needed floor spacing and defensive resilience. As it stands, the Rockets are allowing an alarming average of 131.3 points within their most-utilized overtime lineups.
Another practical solution might involve refining shot selection. According to Second Spectrum analysis, Alperen Şengün has taken significantly more shots than any teammate in clutch moments, although his shooting efficiency remains low with an effective field goal percentage of only 40.8, placing him effectively among the shooting outliers in the NBA. The substantial volume of shots could suggest that Şengün is adapting to increased playing time, affecting his performance during critical game periods.
Coaching Adjustments Needed
It’s important to note that this isn’t a critique of Şengün, who is demonstrating All-Star potential, averaging impressive stats while stepping up amid Fred VanVleet’s absence. Rather, it is an indication that Udoka and his coaching staff may need to revise their strategy. Balancing offensive responsibilities by redistributing usage rates could benefit the team, especially given that 37-year-old Kevin Durant remains a potent scorer, averaging 0.939 points per clutch opportunity, ranking him among the league’s top performers. Placing the ball in Durant’s hands more frequently, orchestrating plays with Şengün as a screener, could facilitate better shot opportunities for the entire roster.
Conclusion
Despite the Rockets’ strong depth and capability to compete against elite teams, overcoming obstacles in clutch time will be crucial for their aspirations of true contention in the league. Until those issues are addressed, their path towards becoming a legitimate playoff threat may remain unfulfilled.
