NCAA Tournament Outlook for 2025-26 Season
As college basketball fans prepare for the NCAA Tournament, mid-February serves as a crucial juncture, with conference championships looming and the excitement of March Madness just around the corner. By now, the landscape of the 2025-26 season has started to crystallize, revealing front-runners, strong contenders, and teams that still need to bolster their tournament hopes.
Conference Dominance and Current Rankings
Last season, experts found it easy to foresee an SEC team capturing the national title, with the conference asserting its dominance in the rankings. Eventually, Florida claimed the championship. This year, however, the SEC seems to have faltered, making room for the Big Ten to take center stage as the conference to watch. In the latest NCAA tournament projections from USA TODAY Sports as of February 17, teams like Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State, and TCU occupy the final spots in the tournament. On the other hand, New Mexico, California, Missouri, and Santa Clara are positioned just outside the bracket.
Current Tournament Locks
Here’s a closer look at how teams rank as the conference tournaments begin:
- Tournament Locks:
- Big Ten (7): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa
- ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State
- Big 12 (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
- SEC (6): Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky
- Other Conferences (5): Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), St. Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
- Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
The Big Ten is currently leading the way, projecting solid contributions from seven teams, with Michigan appearing particularly strong. Meanwhile, Florida, following their initial struggles, seems poised to reclaim their role as SEC contenders and possibly make another deep tournament run to defend their title. The SEC, tied with the ACC and Big 12, also holds six likely locks.
Likely NCAA Tournament Entries
- Likely NCAA Tournament Entries:
- ACC (2): Miami, Southern Methodist
- Big Ten (2): Indiana, UCLA
- Big 12 (1): Central Florida
- SEC (3): Auburn, Texas A&M, Texas
- Other (6): Howard, New Mexico, Santa Clara, San Diego State, VCU, Yale
Auburn aims to build on their recent Final Four appearance, although they need to overcome hurdles in their first season under Coach Steven Pearl, succeeding Bruce Pearl. New Mexico has adjusted well, even post-Richard Pitino’s departure to St. John’s, and could still grasp a tournament spot with a strong finish. There’s speculation about whether Indiana might join the ranks of schools that have clinched both football and basketball titles in the same academic year, following Florida’s historic achievement.
Bubble Teams
- Bubble Teams:
- Big Ten (2): Ohio State, Southern California
- Big East (1): Seton Hall
- SEC (2): Georgia, Missouri
- Others (7): Belmont, High Point, Liberty, Navy, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Utah Valley
JThom Analytics gauge these bubble teams as having just over a 50% chance of making it into the tournament. A successful run in conference tournaments is vital for these teams to secure their spots, particularly for those like Georgia and Missouri in the SEC or Ohio State and USC in the Big Ten.
For the teams hovering around the bubble, it’s too early to claim a ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but a decisive week could completely shift their narratives, easing the pressure heading into Selection Sunday.
