March Madness Approaches
As March approaches, the landscape of college basketball is beginning to crystallize towards the NCAA Tournament. With just under a week left in the regular season, several teams are emerging as frontrunners for the prestigious championship. Notably, a recent matchup on February 21, which could be seen as an indication of possible Final Four contenders, showcased a thrilling victory for No. 3 Duke over No. 1 Michigan, while No. 4 Arizona also triumphed over No. 2 Houston.
The anticipation is building as we look ahead to Conference Championship season, where traditionally, unexpected teams often secure a spot in the tournament, complicating the selection process for the NCAA and potentially altering the 68-team bracket.
NCAA Tournament Scenario
Taking a closer look at the current NCAA Tournament scenario, we present a detailed assessment of which teams are virtually assured of entering the tournament, including those on the bubble yet still vying for a spot in March Madness.
Teams Likely to Secure a Spot in the NCAA Tournament
Locks:
- Big Ten (7 spots): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin
- Big 12 (6 spots): Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Texas Tech
- ACC (6 spots): Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State
- SEC (5 spots): Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
- Big East (3 spots): UConn, Villanova, St. John’s
- Others (2 spots): Utah State, Saint Louis
According to metrics from Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast, there are currently 27 teams that are virtually guaranteed to enter the NCAA Tournament, boasting a 99.8% or higher probability of making the field.
Likely-In Teams:
- Big 12 (1 spot): UCF
- Big Ten (2 spots): Indiana, UCLA
- ACC (2 spots): SMU, Miami
- SEC (4 spots): Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia
- Big East (0 spots): N/A
- Others (3 spots): Saint Mary’s, New Mexico
While these teams are considered likely to be selected, the situation is fluid with a few weeks still remaining in the season. Their chances of reaching the tournament are tracked between 70% and 99.8% according to Torvik’s insights.
Bubble Teams:
- Big 12 (3 teams): TCU, West Virginia, Cincinnati
- Big Ten (3 teams): Ohio State, USC, Washington
- ACC (2 teams): Virginia Tech, Cal
- SEC (2 teams): Auburn, Missouri
- Big East (1 team): Seton Hall
- Others (3 teams): Santa Clara, San Diego State, VCU
It’s important to note that while these bubble teams still harbor hopes of reaching the tournament, their chances vary significantly, ranging from 5% to 57% for gaining an at-large bid, as estimated by Torvik’s metrics.
As we inch closer to March Madness, the dynamics of the tournament will become clearer, with surprises likely ahead as teams fight for their coveted spots.
