The NBA Offseason and Projected Win Totals
The NBA offseason is officially upon us following the conclusion of the 2025 draft, and as teams prepare for the upcoming season, sportsbooks have begun rolling out their projected win totals for all 30 franchises.
Oklahoma City Thunder’s High Expectations
This year, the Oklahoma City Thunder stand out with an impressive over/under set at 62.5 wins, marking the highest expectation seen since the dominant Golden State Warriors roster that featured stars Kevin Durant and Steph Curry in the 2018-19 season. That particular Warriors team fell short of its 67.5 win projection, wrapping up the regular season with a 57-25 record before ultimately losing to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals.
Historical data indicates that since the 1993-94 season, only 11 teams have had over/under win totals of 60 or more, with a notable trend of those teams finishing 8-3 under their expectations.
Other Notable Teams
Trailing closely behind the Thunder, the Cleveland Cavaliers are projected for 55.5 wins, the highest in the Eastern Conference. The Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets follow with over/unders of 54.5 and 53.5, respectively, illustrating a significant eight-win gap between Oklahoma City and the second-placed team in the West.
Additionally, the New York Knicks enter the season with a projected win total of 52.5, slightly lower than last year’s performance but still marking their second-highest since the 1997-98 season.
Teams Facing Challenges
Other teams making headlines include the Orlando Magic, who have set their over/under at 51.5, which is their best since the 2010-11 season, and the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are looking at a win total of 50.5 as they aim to build on their recent successes in the playoffs.
Conversely, the Los Angeles Lakers face their own challenges, entering the season with an over/under of 47.5. They have consistently finished below their projected totals in four out of the last five seasons, and this total could decrease further depending on the status of star player LeBron James as they approach the regular season.
Lowest Expectations for the Utah Jazz
Finally, on the opposite end of the spectrum, the Utah Jazz‘s win total is set at a stark 18.5 as they prepare to navigate a challenging Western Conference, reflecting their lowest expectations since at least 1993.
