NBA Season Midpoint Analysis
As the 2025-26 NBA season reaches its halfway point, the league is showcasing unexpected leaders, with Detroit and Boston dominating the Eastern Conference while San Antonio holds a surprising position within the Western Conference. However, injuries have plagued many key players, overshadowing some stellar performances, including those from emerging star Victor Wembanyama.
MVP Award Contenders
With the season nearing its midpoint, it’s an opportune moment to evaluate potential contenders for the prestigious MVP award. Over the coming days, I will present my selections for top honors and incorporate insights from betting experts at NBC Sports. Today’s focus is the coveted MVP award, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as the frontrunner.
MVP Rankings
- 1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- 2. Nikola Jokic
- 3. Luka Doncic
- 4. Jalen Brown
- 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Note: Players missing over 17 games have been omitted from this ranking, as they are unlikely to meet the league’s criteria of participating in at least 65 games to be considered. Although some names on this list may also ultimately fail to qualify, these selections are based on current standings rather than predicting future outcomes.
MVP Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears firmly in control of the MVP conversation. At this juncture, the race has evolved into a competition largely between him and Nikola Jokic; however, the latter’s health issues severely hinder his chances. Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance means that, even if Jokic manages to return and meet the requisite games played, the substantial difference in their participation — with SGA projected to reach around 76 games compared to Jokic’s anticipated 66 — is likely to sway voters’ opinions.
Statistically, Gilgeous-Alexander has excelled, averaging an impressive 31.8 points, 6.2 assists, and four rebounds per game, while also proving to be a reliable defender. If his current pace continues, he could lead the team to another remarkable season akin to last year’s anticipated 68 wins.
The MVP race might see significant shifts by season-end; both Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo face the possibility of falling short of the 65-game requirement due to their injuries. Meanwhile, Wembanyama’s chances diminish similarly as he can afford to miss only a few more games, which could lead to opportunities for names like Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Maxey to rise in contention as they are also performing notably well.
Luka Doncic holds solid third place, largely due to his remarkable scoring average of 33.3 points per game, which plays a pivotal role in boosting the Mavericks’ offense effectiveness. Meanwhile, Jalen Brown has emerged as a key contributor for the Celtics and could potentially climb higher on this list as the season progresses, whereas Antetokounmpo’s impressive stats are overshadowed by the struggles of the Bucks, impacting his ranking.
Betting Insights on the MVP Race
We consulted NBC Sports’ betting specialists to gain their perspective on the MVP race. Lead Betting Analyst Jay Coucher explained that unless Nikola Jokic miraculously meets the game qualification, betting on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander seems prudent. The Thunder’s current trajectory suggests a compelling 68-win season, and with SGA’s phenomenal metrics, he stands as a strong favorite for the award. Even if Jokic does qualify, Gilgeous-Alexander’s games played will heavily factor into the discussions, solidifying his edge in the race for MVP.
