Reflecting on the USMNT’s Journey
Reflect for a moment on the recent past—before the controversies stirred by ChatGPT, the interpersonal rivalries, and the pointed confrontations. Recall when U.S. national soccer team coach Mauricio Pochettino remarked,
“I am not a mannequin”
and when Christian Pulisic faced backlash for golfing at an inopportune moment. Before all of this, the U.S. faced a disappointing defeat to Switzerland. Now, envision me stating that the U.S. men’s national team (USMNT) would emerge unbeaten from their first five matches in the 2023 Gold Cup. Envision breakout stars like Diego Luna and Malik Tillman showcasing their talents, leading the team to a final showdown with Mexico. Would you regard that as a positive outcome?
Current Sentiment Among Supporters
Indeed, the general sentiment among USMNT supporters is one of satisfaction. The squad remains unbeaten, demonstrating resilience and adaptability. Luna is now celebrated as a fan favorite, while Tillman is on the verge of signing with Bayer Leverkusen for approximately $40 million. Considering that many top players weren’t included in the roster, this summer can be deemed a success.
The Absence of Standout Performances
However, a crucial element is notably lacking from this summer campaign, as well as Pochettino’s leadership so far: the absence of a standout performance. Over the course of 15 matches since Pochettino’s arrival, the USMNT has struggled to convincingly outplay even moderately challenging opponents. While they have capitalized on the mistakes of weaker teams, they have found it difficult to score against defensive lineups, faltered under pressure from skilled adversaries, and barely scraped through against teams that might not qualify for the next World Cup.
Upcoming Challenge Against Mexico
This Sunday, the USMNT faces its stiffest challenge yet under Pochettino’s regime as they take on Mexico in the Gold Cup final at Houston’s NRG Stadium, where they will likely encounter a pro-Mexican atmosphere. This match not only serves as a crucial competitive opportunity before the upcoming World Cup but also poses a test for Pochettino to substantiate whether the team is progressing positively.
Historical Performance Metrics
Since 2013, the USMNT has competed in 60 tournaments across the Concacaf Nations League and Gold Cup, and while these figures can’t entirely encapsulate the variation in opponent quality, they establish a baseline for expectations. Historically, the USMNT averages:
- 2.4 non-penalty goals scored per game
- 0.6 goals conceded
- 14.7 attempts on goal
- 9.6 attempts against
- 61.6% of the possession in the final third
- 28.9 touches in the penalty area
- 14.6 touches conceded in the penalty area
These statistics reflect the U.S.’s status as one of the dominant forces in regional soccer over the last three decades. However, under Pochettino’s guidance over the past nine games, the stats tell a different story:
- 2.0 non-penalty goals scored
- 0.9 goals conceded
- 12.6 shots taken
- 8.0 shots allowed
- 63.7% possession in the final third
- 24.7 touches in the penalty area
- 15.1 touches allowed in the penalty area
Challenges Ahead
This data paints a challenging picture. While the team is enjoying a greater share of the ball, this elevated possession hasn’t translated into improved scoring or attacking efficacy—the U.S. is creating fewer goals and opportunities despite owning the ball in the opposition’s half more frequently. Their defensive weaknesses have also become apparent, as they allow more chances against them.
Certainly, randomness could be at play, suggesting a more dominant style could potentially yield better results in upcoming matches. Yet, the trends haven’t been favorable. Across the same 60-match span, the average expected goals (xG) for the team’s offense stood at 2.0, with 0.7 allowed defensively. Under Pochettino, however, the USMNT’s offense has dipped to an average of just 1.5 xG per game.
Recent Matches and Performance
This pattern manifested in recent matches, including a close contest against Costa Rica where the most significant chance was a missed penalty. Surprisingly, even with a significant shot advantage, the quality of scoring chances remained nearly even, necessitating a penalty shootout for a winner. More alarmingly, against Guatemala, despite starting strong with a lead, the U.S. barely managed to secure their win against a team valued significantly lower in terms of player transfers.
The estimates reveal a troubling trend: across games against lesser-ranked teams like Costa Rica and Guatemala, the USMNT has scored four goals while conceding three. With Costa Rica ranked 46th and Guatemala 75th, results didn’t reflect the expectations, even given a roster filled with second-choice players.
Final Thoughts
Facing Mexico, a rival currently holding the 22nd position, brings both pressure and opportunity for Pochettino. ESPN BET slightly favors El Tri, giving them a 52% chance to lift the trophy, partly due to the USMNT’s depleted lineup and the anticipated cheers from a Mexican-loving crowd in Texas.
The stakes seem paradoxical; while this match won’t include the finalized team for the World Cup, every game has heightened significance in expounding the team’s abilities. The Elo rating system underscores this, reflecting an initial rating of 1738 and 37th position when Pochettino took over, now slightly diminished at 1727 and 40th. Winning Sunday could signal progress; conversely, a loss would set back momentum, and a draw leading to more penalties would maintain the status quo, showing minimal change from Pochettino’s leadership to date.
