Understanding Preseason Futures in Sports Betting
In the realm of sports betting, preseason futures often do not inspire confidence among serious gamblers. For me, wagering is akin to unraveling a complex mathematical equation, serving as a significant source of income. The challenge lies in justifying the return on investment (ROI) after committing a bankroll to a sport for the lengthy duration of six months or more. The risk-reward dynamic tends to skew unfavorably when compared to investing the same funds in more stable financial markets, where loss factors are less pronounced.
Interestingly, the theoretical hold—essentially the bookmaker’s expected profit—is typically 1.5 to 2 times greater in futures betting than in individual game wagering. This has always puzzled me since a sportsbook retaining a bet for months rather than hours should ideally lower the house edge, not inflate it.
Excitement for NBA Win Totals
Despite my general skepticism towards futures, I find myself excited about betting on NBA win totals. This particular form of wagering alleviates many of the usual concerns associated with futures markets and offers substantial, quantifiable advantages for bettors. To outline the benefits, it is important to note that sites like BetMGM currently list NBA win totals with odds identical to those for standard NBA games at -110 on both ends of the spectrum. This parity gives you the same theoretical market hold as betting on day-to-day matchups.
Unlike player awards or championship bets, which can seem enticing due to their potential payouts yet often carry harsher odds, the win-total market provides a more level playing field. Moreover, win-total bets are available throughout the season, allowing bettors flexibility to adjust their strategies—whether it be doubling down, hedge betting, or finding a middle ground.
This versatility contrasts sharply with the complexities that surround betting on awards, where criteria can be ambiguous and multiple options complicate hedging approaches. Another advantage of win-total bets is their rapid processing time. As soon as a team either surpasses its win total or falls short before the regular season’s end, the wager gets settled and the capital is available for reinvestment much sooner than awards or championship bets, which linger until the playoffs or even the finals in mid-June. Now, as the 2025-2026 NBA season approaches, it’s time to determine where to allocate our funds.
Team Projections for the Upcoming NBA Season
1. Toronto Raptors (over/under 37.5 wins)
Last season, the Raptors emerged as a surprise success story against the spread, ranking second in the NBA and covering more than 59% of their games (48-33-1), despite only recording 30 total wins. This was largely attributed to an innovative young coach, Darko Rajaković, and a deep roster filled with promising talent. This offseason has marked a shift for Toronto, transitioning from a developmental framework to a more competitive mindset.
The acquisition of Brandon Ingram and the contract renewal of Jakob Poeltl, a defensive stalwart and elite passer, bolster their roster. Additionally, they drafted Collin Murray-Boyles from South Carolina, adding to their core of solid young players. With a projected lineup featuring Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Ingram, Scottie Barnes, and Poeltl, bolstered by sharpshooter Gradey Dick coming off the bench, the Raptors have positioned themselves as serious contenders in a relatively weak Eastern Conference. I have confidence that the Raptors can secure a spot as a top-six seed in the playoffs and am placing my bets on their win total to surpass expectations.
Bet: Over 37.5 wins
2. Portland Trail Blazers (O/U 35.5 wins)
During a time when offensive firepower is vital for success in the regular season, the Trail Blazers have opted to prioritize defense. Over the offseason, they traded away one of their primary scorers, opting instead for Jrue Holiday, who offers a defensive presence as he ages. They moved on from Deandre Ayton, who provided offensive output, to focus on rookie Donovan Clingan, a talented defensive-minded center.
While the team experienced a brief surge early last year, finishing 10-1 during a strong run, their overall performance since the start of January was mediocre at best, sitting at a balanced 25-25. The ownership’s decision to retain coach Chauncey Billups, in my estimation, is a misstep, suggesting a reluctance to adapt. Given the team’s current trajectory, I do not foresee the Blazers competing for a play-in spot.
Bet: Under 35.5 wins
3. Phoenix Suns (O/U 31.5 wins)
Following the trade of Kevin Durant and the buyout of Bradley Beal, the Suns are among the teams expected to see a significant reduction in televised games this coming season, which the betting lines seem to reflect rather heavily. However, the Suns have bolstered their defensive capability with the acquisition of Mark Williams and the drafting of Khaman Maluach.
Jordan Ott has stepped into the head coach role, and early indications suggest he may implement innovative strategies that will benefit players like Jalen Green, who struggled to find his place in Houston. Devin Booker has performed well in point guard duties previously and now finds himself playing alongside Green and Dillon Brooks, who has showcased impressive shooting numbers. As the roster shifts towards greater balance and focus, I anticipate the Suns exceeding their win total despite not approaching 50 wins.
Bet: Over 31.5 wins
