NHL Player Contracts: An Analysis of Value
In the realm of the NHL, the value of player contracts cannot be overstated. Each player’s worth is scrutinized not just on their performance but also in relation to their salary. This analysis focuses on the contracts that shine as exemplary bargains—players who exceed expectations and deliver outstanding contributions relative to their pay.
Teams are increasingly securing team-friendly deals, making it vital to evaluate these contracts based on the projected future value of each player, independent of past performances. This assessment considers how much each player is expected to contribute annually in future seasons, factoring in age and potential salary increases, without getting bogged down by intricate terms or bonus structures. Notably, players on long-term injured reserve were excluded.
Top Bargain Contracts
Jack Hughes – New Jersey Devils
Contract: $8 million over five years
Surplus Value: $38 million
Probability of Positive Value: 99.9%
Hughes stands out as the most lucrative contract in hockey today. As the salary cap continues its upward trajectory, his $8 million cap hit becomes increasingly favorable, especially with five years still remaining.
Brandon Hagel – Tampa Bay Lightning
Contract: $6.5 million over seven years
Surplus Value: $43 million
Probability of Positive Value: 98%
Upon signing an eight-year extension in the summer of 2023 after a significant breakout 64-point season, Hagel proved to be a core element for the Lightning.
Seth Jarvis – Carolina Hurricanes
Contract: $7.4 million over seven years
Surplus Value: $38 million
Probability of Positive Value: 99.7%
Jarvis inked a deal that appeared advantageous right after his breakthrough campaign. His evolution into a franchise player positions him well for a high-impact career.
Sam Reinhart – Florida Panthers
Contract: $8.6 million over seven years
Surplus Value: $37 million
Probability of Positive Value: 96%
Reinhart’s contract seems increasingly favorable in hindsight. The Panthers managed to negotiate a deal that undercuts the market rate for similar impactful players.
Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado Avalanche
Contract: $12.6 million over six years
Surplus Value: $34 million
Probability of Positive Value: 99.5%
MacKinnon’s contract is undervalued as he approaches the end of this term. His salary represents only a fraction of the cap, considering his on-ice prowess.
Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton Oilers
Contract: $14 million over eight years
Surplus Value: $35 million
Probability of Positive Value: 95%
Despite having the league’s highest cap hit, recent performances have shifted perceptions of Draisaitl’s contract from merely fair to terrific.
Dylan Guenther – Utah Mammoth
Contract: $7.1 million over eight years
Surplus Value: $33 million
Probability of Positive Value: 88%
Guenther signed a long-term deal that now looks remarkably prudent. His $7.1 million cap hit may soon provide exceptional value.
Lucas Raymond – Detroit Red Wings
Contract: $8.1 million over seven years
Surplus Value: $31 million
Probability of Positive Value: 92%
Raymond’s performance trajectory enhances the value of his contract dramatically as he settles into his prime.
Matt Boldy – Minnesota Wild
Contract: $7 million over five years
Surplus Value: $27 million
Probability of Positive Value: 97%
Boldy’s potential to match or exceed scores akin to elite players positions him well above his compensation level.
Tim Stützle – Ottawa Senators
Contract: $8.4 million over six years
Surplus Value: $26 million
Probability of Positive Value: 94%
Stützle’s value is anticipated to grow immensely compared to his $8.4 million contract.
Players such as Josh Morrissey, Jake Sanderson, Mikey Anderson, Aleksander Barkov, and Shea Theodore also show noteworthy promise and value in the competitive landscape of NHL contracts.
