ESPN’s NBA Summer Forecast for 2025-26
This week, ESPN unveiled its NBA Summer Forecast for the upcoming 2025-26 season, serving as a comprehensive analysis of potential outcomes for every team in the league. The forecast encompasses everything from award candidates and championship aspirations to anticipated team dynamics and potential upheavals. The editorial team conducted a poll predicting the season standings for all 30 teams, shedding light on how both the Eastern and Western Conferences might evolve. It’s important to note that predictions are not always accurate, as illustrated by last year’s awards forecast, which fell completely flat.
Teams Expected to Overperform
In the context of these projections, here are five teams expected to overperform compared to their predicted win totals:
Oklahoma City Thunder
Predicted Wins: 64-18
The Thunder’s impressive record last season—65 wins—placed them in an exclusive cohort, marking only the 22nd occurrence in NBA history. Historically, only a couple of teams, including the dominant Chicago Bulls of the 90s and the Golden State Warriors in the mid-2010s, have managed to either equal or surpass such high win totals in consecutive seasons. However, for the Thunder, there are compelling reasons to defy this trend. An underwhelming Eastern Conference, bolstered by injuries to stars in teams like Indiana and Boston, and the continuity of their roster augur well for them. Additionally, key players Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are set to return after missing significant time last year, during which the Thunder’s record soared to a 70-win pace whenever they played. While projecting a 70-win season might be optimistic, it’s possible that the Thunder could claim the best record in the league once again.
LA Clippers
Predicted Wins: 50-32
Last season, the Clippers surprisingly exceeded pre-season expectations by clinching 50 wins, especially with Paul George’s departure to the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard’s limited playtime. The offseason saw crucial roster changes as well, adding stars like Bradley Beal and Chris Paul, while solidifying their lineup to include John Collins and Brook Lopez, positioning the Clippers as formidable contenders. Their aging roster, with most rotation players well over 27, raises questions about durability, yet their depth may serve as a solution to navigate potential injury pitfalls. This could allow them to surpass last season’s win tally.
Golden State Warriors
Predicted Wins: 48-34
The Warriors are similarly projected to replicate their previous win total, influenced by their aging player base. However, this analysis hinges on the burgeoning partnership between Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III, which exhibited exceptional synergy, propelling the team to a fantastic 22-5 record in their shared games last season. With additional acquisitions pending resolution to Jonathan Kuminga’s contract, the team may adjust their strategies. If the core trio of Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green can maintain their health, they have a solid chance to surpass their forecasted performance this season.
Miami Heat
Predicted Wins: 39-43
Despite the spotlight on Butler and trade speculations, the Heat are flying under the radar after a lackluster 37-45 season that saw them barely scrape into the play-in tournament. The positive twist in their outlook is the addition of Norman Powell, a scoring asset who can elevate their offensive game. With the Eastern Conference looking less challenging due to injuries to rival star players, Miami should have a greater opportunity to improve their standings this year.
Toronto Raptors
Predicted Wins: 33-49
After an arduous previous season with a 30-52 finish, the Raptors are intent on rebuilding. Their recent acquisitions, alongside their ambitious strategy under new leadership, indicate a commitment to returning to competitiveness. However, unless significant injury crises arise across the conference, it’s difficult to envision the Raptors slipping into the lower win margins suggested for them in predictions.
Teams Expected to Underperform
Here are five teams likely to underperform by next spring’s conclusion:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Predicted Wins: 51-31
The Timberwolves face a tough challenge after narrowly missing the playoffs last season, finishing with 49 wins. They lost a key player in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, demanding more from younger players while maintaining reliance on veterans like Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. Any injuries could hinder their quest for improvement, yet they have the star power and skill to be competitive this season.
Detroit Pistons
Predicted Wins: 47-35
Last year marked a revival for the Pistons, showcasing their growth with significant wins led by standout Cade Cunningham. Facing a consolidation year, they have made strategic changes to retain their momentum while continuing to invest in youthful talent. Their blend of experience and emerging players could secure them a strong playoff position yet again.
Dallas Mavericks
Predicted Wins: 44-38
With ongoing roster developments and the rise of young talent like Cooper Flagg, Dallas stands out as an intriguing team this season. However, with injuries plaguing key players and lacking depth at the point guard position, surpassing their past win total may prove challenging in a competitive Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs
Predicted Wins: 44-38
Despite Victor Wembanyama establishing himself defensively in his second year, the Spurs remain a work in progress as they strive to integrate young playmakers into their system. The growth of their trio of guards, alongside facilitating Wembanyama’s success, poses a significant challenge for the coaching staff. If cohesion proves elusive, it may be prudent to hold back on forecasts of improvement.
Portland Trail Blazers
Predicted Wins: 39-43
After finishing slightly above .500 last year, the Blazers have made moves to solidify their roster but still face an uphill battle. The impacts of their recent acquisitions and the performance of their young studs, set against the backdrop of a challenging conference, leave them with a steep climb to surpass their prior season’s results.
