NHL Playoff Picture: October to November Changes
As October gives way to November, the NHL playoff picture is already undergoing remarkable changes, highlighting unexpected trends among various teams. While traditional powerhouses continue to dominate the playoff odds, others like the San Jose Sharks find themselves at the bottom of the standings. New contenders, however, have emerged, outperforming pre-season predictions, while several expected frontrunners have experienced early setbacks.
Assessing Team Performances
Using various metrics including playoff probabilities, season stats, and Elo ratings, we assess which franchises are exceeding expectations and which are faltering. Some of these surprises appear to have staying power, while others may not be sustainable as the season progresses.
Standout Teams
Anaheim Ducks
One standout team is the Anaheim Ducks, who seem revitalized under new head coach Joel Quenneville. Currently leading the league in goals per game and ranking fourth in overall goal differential, the Ducks have transformed remarkably from their previous performance, where they consistently ranked near the league’s bottom in scoring since the 2018-19 season. The young trio of Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, and Troy Terry have collectively made a significant mark, contributing 49 points, alongside solid defense from Jacob Trouba and strong goaltending from Lukas Dostal. Following a seven-season playoff drought, the Ducks now boast a 61% playoff probability. However, caution is advised as only 12 games have been played, and their Elo rating is currently low at 26th in the league.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins also defy expectations, beginning the season with a 56% chance of playoff qualification after being previously written off due to age concerns. Stars Sidney Crosby and Erik Karlsson appear rejuvenated, alongside contributions from new faces Justin Brazeau and Anthony Mantha. Currently, Pittsburgh ranks among the top five in goal differential, a positive sign absent since the 2020-21 season. Despite these early successes, concerns remain about sustainability due to the team’s aging roster, including eight players over the age of 30.
Utah Mammoth
In a fresh start, the Utah Mammoth (previously the Arizona Coyotes) currently find themselves in ninth place for points percentage and goals-per-game differential. Their young core of players is thriving, and they have the league’s stingiest defense, allowing the fewest shots per game. With a playoff chance of 69%, the Mammoth are proving they could be legitimate contenders if their goaltending improves. Their strong statistical performance against tough competition supports their promising trajectory.
Teams Facing Challenges
Detroit Red Wings
Conversely, the Detroit Red Wings are cautiously optimistic with a current playoff probability of 59%. Although their points and goal differential are average, the rising form of players like Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat offers hope. Expected goals metrics indicate room for improvement, and enhanced goaltending could solidify their playoff position as they face a more manageable schedule moving forward.
St. Louis Blues
After a mid-season surge last year, the St. Louis Blues find themselves struggling, currently holding the league’s second-worst record and facing significant defensive challenges, leading to a drastic drop in playoff chances (-34%). Key players have failed to meet expected performance levels, and goaltending woes have compounded their issues. Despite these setbacks, a 32% playoff chance indicates potential for recovery, particularly if they can address their goalkeeping struggles.
Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames are in a comparable situation with a plunge in playoff odds, resting at 18%. Despite good goaltending, a lack of offensive support has stifled their performance. As they shift from a difficult schedule to an easier one, they could see improvements—but they need more scoring from established players to optimize their chances.
New York Rangers
The New York Rangers are another team under scrutiny, currently showing an unusual dichotomy with elite defensive statistics but lackluster offensive output. Their shooting percentages rank among the lowest, and while playoff odds stand at 41%, they need to find a scoring rhythm to convert their advanced metrics into wins.
Minnesota Wild
Lastly, the Minnesota Wild are grappling with inconsistencies despite star player Kirill Kaprizov‘s impressive performance. They rank poorly in overall scoring and goal differential, and with a 24% playoff chance, they must significantly improve if they aim to compete for a postseason berth.
Conclusion
As the NHL season unfolds, the dynamics between established franchises and emerging teams create an intriguing landscape to monitor, especially regarding how these teams adapt to early challenges and capitalize on unforeseen opportunities.
