Miami vs. Indiana: College Football Playoff Championship Preview
On Monday night, Miami is set to square off against Indiana in the College Football Playoff championship. As the game approaches, BetMGM Sportsbook has installed Indiana as the favorite, giving them an 8.5-point edge. The top-ranked Hoosiers, boasting a flawless record of 15-0, have demonstrated their dominance throughout the playoffs, achieving impressive victories over Alabama (38-3) and Oregon (56-22). Their two-game aggregate winning margin in the playoffs stands at an astounding 34.5 points as they chase their first national championship.
In contrast, the 10th-seeded Hurricanes enter the championship with a 13-2 record, having secured hard-fought wins against Texas A&M (10-3), Ohio State (24-14), and Mississippi (31-27). Miami’s playoff victories reflect a much tighter scope, with a winning margin of only 7 points, suggesting their experience with close contests may prove advantageous in this high-stakes matchup.
Keys to Victory
For Miami
For Miami to pull off an upset, quarterback Carson Beck must maintain his effectiveness. His recent stats might not stand out, but he has excelled on crucial third downs, completing 15 of 26 attempts, as noted by Sportradar. Beck played a pivotal role in Miami’s semifinal advancement with a clutch 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive against Ole Miss. The Hurricanes will rely on running back Mark Fletcher Jr. to break through an Indiana defensive line that has allowed an impressive low of just 2.7 yards per rush in their playoff appearances, managing to restrict opponents to under 100 rushing yards in 13 of their 15 games. Fletcher, having averaged 130 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, will be a key player.
Additionally, Miami’s defensive strategy hinges on exerting pressure on Indiana’s quarterback, Fernando Mendoza. Notably, the Hurricanes lead the nation in sacks, having accumulated a remarkable 12 sacks across their semifinal wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, although they only managed one sack against Trinidad Chambliss in the last game. Mendoza possesses the ability to extend plays, but he is less mobile than Chambliss. Miami must also prioritize discipline; they committed 10 penalties in the semifinal, which could prove costly against a formidable opponent.
For Indiana
Mendoza’s performance will be critical for Indiana. As this season’s Heisman Trophy winner, he has showcased extraordinary ability, throwing eight touchdown passes with no interceptions against high-caliber teams like Alabama and Oregon. However, he will face intense pressure from one of the nation’s premier pass rushes, and past instances of taking multiple sacks in a single game could be concerning as he prepares for Miami.
Running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black form a robust duo that can alleviate some of the pressure on Mendoza if they can find space. Mendoza’s receiving corps, featuring standout players Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt, and Charlie Becker, will be going up against a reduced Miami secondary for the first half due to Xavier Lucas’s targeting ejection during the semifinal.
Indiana’s defense must focus on containing Fletcher, utilizing strategic blitzes to challenge Miami’s offensive line, and ensuring they keep a close watch on dynamic freshman Malachi Toney when he has the ball.
Final Prediction
Both teams have remarkable narratives leading to this championship, with Indiana overcoming a historic deficit as one of the worst teams in Bowl Subdivision history just months ago. Meanwhile, Miami seeks resurgence as a former college football powerhouse, looking to reclaim its glory on home turf. Ultimately, the prediction points to Indiana earning their first national title with a score of 31-21.
In earlier predictions, the AP’s scorecard reflected a balanced performance during the CFP semifinals, with one accurate prediction straight-up and against the spread, leading to an overall season prediction record of 196-65 (75.1%) straight-up and 126-134-1 (48.3%) against the spread. Join the conversation by signing up for alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season.
