Early Season Narratives in European Football
The early weeks of the European football season have spawned some noteworthy narratives, with Barcelona securing LaLiga, Liverpool performing stronger than anticipated, and Nottingham Forest surprisingly finishing high in the Premier League standings. Meanwhile, Paris Saint-Germain has appeared more cohesive without star player Kylian Mbappe, while Freiburg achieved a top-five spot in Germany’s Bundesliga. Last year’s assessments of early-season overreactions showed impressive accuracy—despite Everton managing to avoid relegation and Juventus failing to clinch Serie A once again, as Brighton’s quest for elevation fell short.
Speculative Predictions for the Season
Predictably, forecasts grounded in extensive data tend to yield the best outcomes, yet the thrilling unpredictability of the sport invites some boldly optimistic predictions. Thus, with a few matches already played across Europe, I’m inclined to make eight speculative calls for this season.
Offensive Investments and Defensive Struggles
A captivating subplot has been Liverpool and Manchester City’s significant investments in revamping their offensive capabilities, which may have compromised their defensive stability. City experienced a jarring 2-0 defeat against Tottenham Hotspur, caught off guard by a swift counterattack. Just two days later, Liverpool squandered a two-goal lead while playing against Newcastle, marking their fourth such failure in three games, before 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha secured a late win for them.
City’s recent performances have been a mixed bag, boasting dominant victories scored at 4-0, 5-2, and 6-0, while also facing losses by 4-3 and 2-0. Liverpool, inclusive of the Community Shield, has shown a remarkable attacking flair with nine goals but equally alarming defensive lapses, conceding six times in just three matches.
Defensive Solidity of Arsenal and Chelsea
In comparison, Arsenal and Chelsea present a contrasting picture, exhibiting solidity in defense. Arsenal boasts one of the league’s most dependable backlines, while Chelsea’s defense has been nearly faultless, evidenced by a 0-0 stalemate with Crystal Palace and a subsequent 5-1 victory over West Ham.
Both teams have combined to allow only one shot above 0.2 expected goals (xG) over 360 minutes of play. Arsenal has created five such attempts—ranking them among the league’s leaders—while Chelsea has been even more prolific, registering nine high-quality offensive attempts. Despite concerns regarding Chelsea’s frequent squad rotations, recent signings have shone brightly, although the cloud of injury looms over its star players, calling into question their overall effectiveness moving forward.
Acknowledging the shaky performances of both Liverpool and City, weakness in defense could open the door for a changing of the guard this season, potentially favoring either Arsenal or Chelsea.
Continental Struggles of Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen
On the continental stage, both Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen haven’t started the season well, managing just one point from their first three matches. Atletico’s recent history has been marked by struggles since their Champions League exit last March, yielding only nine wins in 20 games across competitions and failing against elite clubs. Despite significant summer signings, they find themselves languishing in 13th place in LaLiga.
For Bayer Leverkusen, the transition to manager Erik ten Hag in the Bundesliga has yielded lackluster results, with the squad more closely resembling a passive Manchester United side than the dynamic Ajax teams he previously coached. Their debut under Ten Hag was far from encouraging, managing minimal shot attempts in possession against Hoffenheim.
Serie A Developments
Meanwhile, Serie A has kicked off similarly to last season, with Napoli and Inter Milan effortlessly dispatching their opponents, while AC Milan stumbled to a surprising defeat. Among the noteworthy surprises were Como, which dominated Lazio with a commanding 2-0 victory, continuing its impressive run from the previous season.
Alongside high-profile dealings, such as Arsenal’s acquisition of Viktor Gyokeres and Manchester United’s signing of Benjamin Sesko, the performances of their respective forward players will be under scrutiny as the season progresses.
