Introduction
Recently, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, head of INEOS, highlighted the importance of Ian Graham in a series of interviews. Graham, well-known as Liverpool’s former director of research, was instrumental in leveraging data analysis alongside Michael Edwards, playing a pivotal role in bringing Liverpool back to the forefront of English football. After departing Liverpool in 2023, Graham authored his book, ‘How to Win the Premier League’, which may have piqued Ratcliffe’s interest. If Ratcliffe aims to realize his ambitious Project 150 before 2028, getting familiar with Graham’s insights could prove beneficial.
Graham’s Innovative Strategies
Central to Graham’s innovative strategies was his ‘possession value’ model, designed to evaluate how a player’s actions impacted their team’s goal-scoring potential. This framework drew inspiration from Dean Oliver’s analysis in ‘Basketball on Paper’, asserting that successful players balance shooting, passing, and dribbling—roles defined as ‘triple threats’. In his analysis, Graham explained that such versatility makes players harder to defend against, as they can select the most effective action in any given moment.
Liverpool saw considerable value in having ‘triple threats’ like Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino, each with unique strengths that complemented the others, enabling a formidable attack.
Ratcliffe’s Strategic Shift
As for Ratcliffe’s awareness of these principles, his recent selection of Bryan Mbeumo signals a strategic shift in Manchester United’s approach. The Brentford winger stood out as one of the Premier League’s most valuable attackers last season, significantly contributing to his team’s offensive play, second only to Salah in terms of offensive value, according to StatsBomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric. Mbeumo’s involvement resulted in him netting 20 goals, although he may not replicate the same success at United due to the different dynamics of the team.
Despite a dip in his underlying metrics, Mbeumo’s ability to enhance scoring opportunities for teammates underscores his value, particularly as a facilitator, where he shone in assist potential and creative plays. His dribbling and progressive passing were highlighted as key assets that Manchester United has previously lacked, particularly in an often static attacking setup.
Conclusion
Furthermore, Mbeumo’s goal-scoring record, while impressive, reflects an overachievement in expected goals (xG) last season, raising questions on sustainability moving forward. Nonetheless, he remains a rare talent in his capacity to positively impact match outcomes through his versatile attacking contributions and skill set.
The acquisition of Mbeumo might be a step towards addressing United’s offensive challenges and enhancing the squad’s creativity and unpredictability, characteristics that their gameplay sorely needed. Whether or not Ratcliffe is familiar with the theories outlined by Graham, it appears that his latest signing could embody the very ‘triple threat’ attributes that could help redefine Manchester United’s attacking identity.
