2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year Contenders
As the 2025-26 NBA season progresses, two former Duke players, Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, have emerged as frontrunners for the Rookie of the Year title. Particularly, Flagg has recently gained momentum, boasting an impressive average of 27.3 points per game at the start of February. Despite his scoring prowess, it’s crucial to assess a player’s actual impact in a game rather than rely solely on point totals.
Analyzing Rookie Performance
Utilizing insights from FTN’s newly launched NBA StatsHub, we can analyze the effectiveness of this year’s rookie class, focusing on measurable contributions rather than just scoring volume.
Top Rookies in the 2025-26 Season
Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
- Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation (FGOE): +0.7%
- Points Over Expectation (PTOE): +0.0
- Team Record: 19-35
Cooper Flagg, the top pick in the recent draft, is heavily favored to clinch the Rookie of the Year award, priced at -750 after the All-Star break. However, a deeper dive into the NBA StatsHub metrics suggests that his impact may not be as significant as his raw numbers indicate.
Flagg’s FGOE of +0.7% ranks him 122nd among 224 players who have logged at least 20 minutes per contest. Additionally, he sits at 139th in PTOE, revealing that his scoring may be more about volume than efficiency. The data from the team’s performance underscores this, as the Mavericks outscore opponents by 3.1 points per 100 possessions when Flagg is off the court. While he adds a slight offensive boost, his defensive struggles are notable; among teammates playing over 200 minutes, he holds the lowest defensive rating. Thus, despite Flagg’s talent, his contribution to a struggling Mavericks team is less impactful than expected.
Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
- FGOE: +6.1%
- PTOE: +2.2
- Team Record: 26-29
After exploring lesser-known scorers last month, Kon Knueppel’s ascending production has raised eyebrows across the league. In the past month, he has averaged 18.4 points, shooting an efficient 47.1% overall and an impressive 41.7% from three-point range. His accuracy at the charity stripe has also been remarkable, with a conversion rate of 92.5% ranked ninth among players taking at least 3.0 free throws per game.
The Hornets, having concluded last season with a woeful 19-63 record, have notably improved—surpassing that total well within the current season and remaining in playoff contention. Despite some defensive challenges typical for a rookie, Knueppel’s FGOE and positive PTOE indicate that his scoring effectiveness stems from skill rather than mere opportunity, contributing significantly to Charlotte’s turnaround.
VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers
- FGOE: -3.5%
- PTOE: -0.8
- Team Record: 30-24
Entering the All-Star break, VJ Edgecombe was averaging 14.9 points and 4.1 assists per game, ranking him among the top scorers in this year’s rookie class. However, his shooting percentage reflects typical rookie struggles—hitting 42.3% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc. The advanced metrics further highlight his challenges, with a FGOE of -3.5% and a PTOE of -0.8 falling short compared to his peers.
Despite these inefficiencies, Edgecombe’s potential remains high, recently recognized as the Rising Stars MVP at the NBA All-Star Weekend. As the season progresses, he aims to improve his performance and bolster Philadelphia’s playoff push in the latter half of the season.
Conclusion
FTN’s NBA StatsHub illustrates the often stark contrast between perception and actual productivity in the league. Historical assessments of rookies have leaned towards simple scoring averages and straightforward box score metrics. With the aid of indicators like FGOE and PTOE, we can draw a clearer distinction between production driven by volume and genuine offensive contribution.
This rookie class is filled with talent, but when evaluating their true impact, Kon Knueppel emerges as a notable standout, even if public betting sentiments do not reflect this reality.
