Mid-November Analysis of European Soccer
As we hit the mid-point of November, European soccer has reached an analytical phase, often referred to as the “nerd zone” of the 2025-26 season. By this point, around ten matches are typically sufficient for expected goal (xG) statistics to offer a reasonably predictive insight into team performance. Specifically, France’s Ligue 1 and Spain’s La Liga have completed 12 matchdays, while England’s Premier League and Italy’s Serie A stand at 11 and Germany’s Bundesliga has finished 10. With the latest international break in progress, it’s an opportune moment to delve into the data and perspectives emerging from this season so far.
League Performances and Key Insights
Using overall expected goal figures rather than those excluding penalties, we begin by examining each league’s early performance and looking at how injuries are influencing outcomes. Liverpool exemplifies the unpredictability that can arise during these early matches. Despite their performances in August—where they managed a win against Newcastle United with a negative xG differential and a narrow victory over Arsenal even when xG suggested otherwise—they’ve experienced a tumultuous October, losing to Chelsea and Manchester United. Nevertheless, their current fifth place seems justified, considering their xG differential aligns closely with their point total.
In the race for top-four contention, Crystal Palace could challenge Liverpool. The Eagles sit in 10th place, just two points away from a Champions League spot, and possess an impressive xG differential. They have exhibited an unusual trend this season, scoring fewer goals than expected but also maintaining a solid defense. If they continue this trajectory, a push for European competition is plausible.
Meanwhile, Arsenal showcases exceptional form, leading the league with a four-point buffer over Manchester City. They have outperformed expectations significantly, while City appears to be gaining momentum, showing improved xG differentials over recent matches. Erling Haaland remains pivotal for City, having scored 14 goals, yet his conversion rate indicates a level of overachievement that may not sustain itself throughout the season.
Bundesliga and La Liga Highlights
Turning to the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich’s dominance has been staggering. With a remarkable xG differential, they had a flawless record until a surprising draw last weekend. Their heavy victories against other top teams further emphasize their superiority in the league. Bayer Leverkusen is proving to be a contender for the second-best team despite inconsistent match results contributing to their current standing.
In Spain’s La Liga, stories abound—from Real Madrid’s narrow lead over Barcelona to Atletico Madrid‘s inconsistent performances. Villarreal is performing admirably, while Sevilla struggles despite an xG differential indicating they could be faring better.
Serie A and Ajax’s Struggles
Serie A presents a contrasting picture, where Inter Milan leads the table, having a commanding xG differential, in contrast to a Roma side that has been overachieving in their results. The ongoing managerial changes at Juventus and Atalanta suggest a volatility that could lead to significant shifts in both teams’ fortunes if they absorb their new strategies effectively.
Ajax’s situation in the Netherlands remains unexpectedly dire, showing a stark drop in form from their past dominance, with potential implications for their future standing in both domestic and European competitions.
Conclusion
As the season unfolds, these stories and statistical analyses will continue to shape our understanding of team performances, highlighting the nuances often hidden behind the traditional result tables. Expect the narrative to evolve as we analyze how teams respond to their current trajectories through the remainder of the season.
