2026 NHL Draft Mock Projections: Potential First Round Selections Based on Lottery Outcomes

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery

The National Hockey League is set to hold its 2026 Draft Lottery on May 5th, where a weighted system will determine which teams will choose first and second overall. Currently, the Vancouver Canucks hold the highest probability of securing the top pick at 25.5%, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks at 13.5%, while the New York Rangers bring up the rear of the top three with 11.5%. The outcomes of this lottery are expected to significantly influence the strategies of several franchises looking to strengthen their rosters.

Projected First Round Selections

In this analysis, we project the potential selections for the first round based on the assumption that the Blackhawks clinch the first overall spot and the Canucks take the second pick:

1. Chicago Blackhawks – Gavin McKenna, FWD: If luck favors the Blackhawks, they would likely choose Gavin McKenna from Penn State. Despite a challenging path, McKenna’s skills are undeniable, and having an existing connection with Connor Bedard could facilitate his transition into the NHL, potentially allowing him to play for his childhood team as soon as next season.
2. Vancouver Canucks – Ivar Stenberg, FWD: Historically, the Canucks have found success with Swedish players, and Stenberg stands out as a candidate after his exceptional performance at the World Junior Championships. His arrival could coincide with an urgent need for fresh talent in a struggling lineup, making him a solid option for next season.
3. New York Rangers – Caleb Malhotra, FWD: Considered a dark horse in this draft, Malhotra’s exceptional two-way play has caught the attention of the Rangers. With his ability to impact the game immediately, he would be a valuable asset for the team, which is looking to refresh its forward lines.
4. Calgary Flames – Keaton Verhoeff, D: The Flames have a reputation for strong drafting, especially in the NCAA. Verhoeff, an impressive offensive defenseman, would enhance their prospect pool.
5. Toronto Maple Leafs – Chase Reid, D: Reid’s two-way capabilities align perfectly with Toronto’s long-term strategy for their defense, making him a key target for the franchise.
6. Seattle Kraken – Tynan Lawrence, FWD: In dire need of a game-changer, the Kraken eye Lawrence, whose offensive upside could prove beneficial for their future.
7. Winnipeg Jets – Carson Carels, D: A surprising seventh overall pick for the Jets, Carels would receive exceptional guidance in developing his skills within a successful organization.
8. Florida Panthers – Viggo Bjorck, FWD: The reigning champions find themselves unexpectedly selecting in the top ten, providing an opportunity for Bjorck to join a competitive roster.
9. San Jose Sharks – Daxon Rudolph, D: After exceeding expectations, the Sharks look to solidify their defense with Rudolph, a crucial step for long-term success.
10. Nashville Predators – Alberts Smits, D: Renowned for their draft strategy, the Predators will likely consider Smits, an up-and-coming defenseman ready to make an impact.
11. St. Louis Blues – Oliver Suvanto, FWD: As the Blues contemplate their roster, Suvanto could be a blossoming talent they plug in to replace departing veterans.
12. New Jersey Devils – Oscar Hemming, FWD: With a focus on pairing Hemming with star forwards Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, the Devils are keen on enhancing their offensive depth.
13. New York Islanders – Ethan Belchetz, FWD: Following a transformative draft lottery win in 2025, the Islanders look to bolster their roster further with Belchetz.
14. Columbus Blue Jackets – Ryan Lin, D: Lin, a promising defenseman, would fit well within the Jackets’ drafting history of prioritizing skilled players at his position.
15. St. Louis Blues via Detroit Red Wings – Malte Gustafsson, D: Acquired from the Red Wings, this pick could see the Blues add Gustafsson to their defensive ranks.
16. Washington Capitals – Nikita Kiepov, FWD: As a player headed to Michigan State next season, Kiepov could be well-prepared to transition into the NHL following his college career.
17. Los Angeles Kings – Adam Novonty, FWD: The Kings, re-evaluating their prospects, aim to boost their lineup with Novonty after the retirement of veteran Anze Kopitar.
18. Washington Capitals via Anaheim Ducks – Ilya Morozov, FWD: With two late picks, the Capitals could secure Morozov to further develop their young offensive core.
19. Utah Mammoth – Marcus Nordmark, FWD: Continuing their upward trajectory, the Mammoth eye Nordmark as a strategic forward selection.
20. San Jose Sharks via Edmonton Oilers – Elton Hermansson, FWD: Aiming for balance, the Sharks target Hermansson, complementing their plans for a defensive-heavy draft.
21. Philadelphia Flyers – Xavier Villenueve, D: With uncertainty surrounding their draft positioning, Villenueve could still be an excellent pick as the Flyers look to fortify their blue line.
22. Pittsburgh Penguins – JP Hurlbert, FWD: Despite last year’s disappointing outcomes, Hurlbert offers the Penguins another promising prospect to develop.
23. Boston Bruins – Juho Piiparinen, D: After exceeding expectations this past season, drafting Piiparinen would further strengthen Boston’s defensive depth.
24. Vancouver Canucks via Minnesota Wild – Yegor Shilov, FWD: Given the departures from their core, the Canucks can leverage this pick from the Wild to support their rebuild with Shilov.
25. Montreal Canadiens – Mathis Preston, FWD: The Canadiens’ dedication to their rebuild remains firm, and Preston offers valuable prospects moving forward.
26. Seattle Kraken via Tampa Bay Lightning – Wyatt Cullen, FWD: Drawing from his father’s successful NHL career, Cullen looks to make his own mark as he steps into a prominent college role next season.
27. New York Rangers via Dallas Stars – Niklas Aaram-Olsen, FWD: With picks concentrated in the first round, Aaram-Olsen is an exciting prospect who could solidify the Rangers’ future.
28. Calgary Flames via Vegas Golden Knights – Simas Ignatavicius, FWD: The Flames aim to augment their prospect pool with Ignatavicius, who holds significant potential.
29. Buffalo Sabres – Maddox Dagenais, FWD: Selecting Dagenais marks a strategic move for a franchise transitioning back into contender mode.
30. Carolina Hurricanes – Liam Ruck, FWD: Ruck embodies the Hurricanes’ approach to maximizing value from later picks as they continue to build their roster.
31. St. Louis Blues via Colorado Avalanche – Alexander Command, FWD: This pick could be pivotal for the Blues, offering flexibility in addressing their needs depending on the Avalanche’s performance.
32. Ottawa Senators – William Hakansson, D: Restored a pick once forfeited, Hakansson would enhance the Senators’ defensive prospects, adding depth to the organization.